The Crowley Report 3/16/15

The Crowley Report 3/16/15With the Dollar making new highs yet again grains fell.  The Dollar Index traded to as high as 100.785 earlier today as traders look towards a Fed rate hike later this year ahead of their meeting next week.  Soybeans fell 16’4 to 974’0 in a one-sided session to end the week.  The market is fully expecting a switch to Brazil with the Dollar strength and ample South American supplies. The Brazilian Real has fallen 3% to 3.26 vs the US dollar. Such a fall in the currency equates to nearly a 30 cent rally in their cash bids for soybeans, and farmers are active sellers. Sales were said to be more than 1 MMTs and cash fob basis levels are down 6-8 [more]

The Crowley Report 3/9/15

The Crowley Report 3/9/15A strong jobs report pushed the dollar higher to end the week, keeping pressure on our markets. The South American weather forecast featured mostly mild/dry weather for Argentina and S Brazil for the next 2 weeks which would be perfect following the excessive rains of late. With the strike delays behind us, harvest should progress to over the halfway mark in Brazil. Farmers there were heavy sellers this week as the Dollar/Real relationship widened some more. There was chatter that China is going to sell at least 2 MMT of beans from their reserves and replace them with purchases from S America. Tuesday brings the March WASDE report from the USDA. US soybean ending stocks are expected to be pared back [more]

The Crowley Report 3/2/15

The Crowley Report 3/2/15Beans closed higher on the day and higher for the week, with uncertainty over the Brazilian truckers strike continuing to provide support. Some roads were open but stocks have been drawn down at ports. China booked at least 2 cargoes from Brazil on Friday. FOB gulf values were up 3 cents at 94 over. Agroconsult estimated the country's 2015 soybean crop at 94.7 MMT, up 828,000 MT from previously. Harvesting in Brazil's top state of Mato Grosso is said to be 53.6% complete versus 58.5% a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecast the Argentine crop at 57 MMT. The Ag Ministry is at 58 MMT. The commitment of traders report shows funds long 80,000 contracts. The open interest [more]

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