The Crowley Report: 8/17/2014

The Crowley Report: 8/17/2014 This week the USDA provided its latest estimate of the corn yield and resulting crop size. The USDA is using a 167 bushel per acre national average yield. This is above trend line yield (165) and also record high. With planted and harvested acreage left unchanged, this yield will result in a record large crop pegged at 14.032 billion bushels. Corn used for feed, ethanol and exports were all increased slightly from projections last month. This left ending stock projections nearly unchanged from last month at a hefty 1.8 billion bushels. Barring an early frost in the northern Corn Belt, it would appear that the era of tight corn stocks is now behind us. This makes two record large crops [more]

The Crowley Report: 8/11/2014

The Crowley Report: 8/11/2014The corn market was under constant pressure Friday, closing 8 cents lower from improved chances of rain in the northern and eastern corn belts. The USDA report Tuesday is predicted to hold some bearish news as well with some estimating total new crop production at 14.25 bln bu. (170 pba average nationally needed – will the USDA print that big of a number?). If so, the carryout could be shown at 2.0-2.1 billion. Weather forecast continue to show no real threats. The commitment of traders report shows that non-commercials were short 10,000 contracts – but that managed funds held a net long worth 68,000. This position together with the big producer long is very bearish to future prices. Cash basis levels [more]

The Crowley Report: 8/4/2014

The Crowley Report: 8/4/2014 Good bye July! August didn’t open with any exciting changes, just more of the same. Great weather, big crop estimates, lower prices. December corn futures closed 5 cents lower to end the week, pressured by private estimates pegging national corn yield north of 170 bu./acre and total production near 14.5 bln bushels. The market will continue to be weather driven until it gets another snapshot of S&D and production estimates on August 12. The weather between now and then continues to look great with a few chances of rain next week.  Linn Group estimated US corn production at 14.518 billion bushels with an average national yield of 172.8 bu/acre.  Doane came out with production at 14.440 billion bushels with an average [more]

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